# Quarterly Forecast Roll-Up Template

> Roll individual rep commits up into one leadership-ready forecast view, with built-in sandbagging and variance flags so leadership sees the risk behind the total, not just a clean blended number.

Free template for sales leaders. Topic: [Pipeline, Deal Management & Forecasting](https://www.peerlab.ai/library/topic/pipeline-deal-management-forecasting/). Published by PeerLab in the [Sales Enablement Resource Library](https://www.peerlab.ai/library/). Source: https://www.peerlab.ai/library/quarterly-forecast-rollup-template/

## How to use it

Have every rep submit their Commit/Best Case/Pipeline numbers into the rep-level table each week, let the sandbagging and variance flags surface automatically, and present only the four-number Presentation View to leadership rather than a single blended total.

## What's inside

- Rep-level input table (quota, Commit, Best Case, Pipeline, coverage ratio, last-quarter accuracy)
- Sandbagging flag logic combining under-committed forecast with a historical under-forecasting pattern
- Variance flag logic for unexplained swings of ±25%+ versus the prior period
- Auto-generated leadership rollup table with team coverage ratio and flag counts
- Guidance on never presenting a blended total without its flag counts
- Four-number 'Presentation View' format for the leadership meeting

## Rep-level input table (one row per rep)

| Rep | Quota | Commit ($) | Best Case ($) | Pipeline ($) | Coverage Ratio | Last Qtr Accuracy % | This Qtr Forecast (Commit+Best Case) | Variance vs. Last Qtr Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | | | =(Commit+Best Case+Pipeline)/Quota | | =Commit+Best Case | =This-Last |
| | | | | | | | | |
| **Team Total** | Σ | Σ | Σ | Σ | Σweighted/ΣQuota | avg | Σ | Σ |

## Sandbagging flag logic
Flag any rep row where **both** of the following are true:
- `Commit + Best Case < 60% of Quota`, **and**
- `Last Qtr Accuracy % > 95%` **and** actual consistently landed above forecast (under-forecasting pattern per the companion Forecast Accuracy Calculator)

→ This combination means a rep is likely holding real, qualified deals out of Commit/Best Case to guarantee they beat the number. Address directly, don't just adjust the rollup number silently.

## Variance flag logic
Flag any rep row where:
- `This Qtr Forecast` differs from `Last Qtr Forecast` (same deals, prior period) by more than **±25%** with no corresponding change in headcount, territory, or pipeline generation rate.

→ Investigate before rolling up: a swing this size usually means deals were re-categorized without new evidence, not that the business genuinely shifted.

## Leadership rollup (auto-generated from the table above)

| Metric | Formula | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Total Quota | Σ Quota | |
| Total Commit | Σ Commit | |
| Total Best Case | Σ Best Case | |
| Total Pipeline (unweighted) | Σ Pipeline | |
| **Leadership Forecast (Commit + Best Case)** | Σ Commit + Σ Best Case | |
| Team Coverage Ratio | Σ(Commit+Best Case+Pipeline) ÷ Σ Quota | |
| Weighted Coverage Ratio (feed from Weighted Pipeline Forecast Template) | | |
| # Reps flagged for sandbagging | count | |
| # Reps flagged for variance | count | |
| Blended forecast accuracy, last quarter | avg per-rep accuracy | |

## Reading the roll-up as a leader
- **Never present the blended Leadership Forecast without also showing the flag counts**, a clean team total with three sandbagging flags underneath is not actually clean.
- **Coverage Ratio below the team's calculated minimum (see the companion Pipeline Coverage Ratio Calculator) means the Commit number is at risk regardless of how confident it looks**, because there isn't enough pipeline behind it to survive normal slippage.
- **A rep appearing in the sandbagging flag every quarter** is a coaching conversation about forecast trust, not a compliment on their conservatism, inaccurate-low forecasts cause the same resourcing and planning damage as inaccurate-high ones.

## Presentation view (for the leadership meeting: 4 numbers, one page)
1. **The Number:** Total Commit + Best Case, with the team Coverage Ratio next to it
2. **The Confidence:** last quarter's blended forecast accuracy % and bias direction
3. **The Risk:** number of reps flagged (sandbagging + variance combined), named
4. **The Trend:** this quarter's forecast vs. last quarter's forecast vs. last quarter's actual, three numbers side by side